(CNN Spanish) – The relationship between Mexico and the United States is one of the important issues leading up to the presidential election on November 5. And it is not only a border of more than 3,000 kilometers that unites both nations, but also commercial, cultural and historical ties.
“USA. It is a partner country, Mexico’s number one, where we deposit 85% of Mexican exports and they have a very intense commercial relationship and a very important political relationship with Mexico,” says José Luis Valdés, political scientist and internationalist.
Among the main topics are security, migration and economy.
“The most important challenges we have at this moment with the United States are the issue of security and the issue of migration. They are two elements that have shaped a certainly conflictive relationship with the US,” says Valdés.
During the administration of former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, disagreements with the United States were constant regarding security. Such is the case of the arrest of the alleged drug trafficker Ismael “el Mayo” Zambada by the United States, a high point that put cooperation at risk.
“The issue of Mayo Zambada has been a mystery, and with that we closed the previous administration. I think that gave a clear signal, at least to those of us who are not in the government, that cooperation was not being so fluid,” says Mariana Aparicio, professor of Political Science at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).
The mission that led to the arrest of Mayo Zambada and Joaquín Guzmán López, son of Joaquín “el Chapo” Guzmán, was the subject of criticism from the Government of Mexico, which did not participate in the operation.
The US ambassador to Mexico, Ken Salazar, said that they continue and hope to maintain deep cooperation with the Government of Mexico under the Bicentennial Framework on Security: “our people are safer as a result of this important cooperation,” he said in August.
Before the arrest, López Obrador criticized the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), following an investigation that claimed that his 2006 presidential campaign received money from drug trafficking, something the president denied, arguing that this claim was not compatible with the bilateral cooperation on migration and against drugs.
The United States Department of Justice told CNN that they preferred not to comment on the investigation, that they “fully respect the sovereignty of Mexico” and that they are committed to that country to combat drug cartels.
The academic assures that this situation meant a clear departure from security cooperation policies, “López Obrador always argued national sovereignty and that now President Claudia Sheinbaum is raising the same issue, which will not represent a major change in bilateral policy for the incoming administration of the northern neighbor.
“And this will surely prevent obtaining new spaces of understanding on the issue of security and everything that this implies for the two countries,” says Valdés.
Mexico continually cooperates with the United States to try to contain the migratory flows that cross the country, a delicate issue that has become the main focus of the campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Mexico has been key in reducing the number of apprehensions on the border with the United States. After reaching an all-time high in late 2023 with more than 260,000 encounters, the monthly number of encounters according to the Border Patrol in August 2024 was 107,503.
According to the Pew Research Center, this decline has occurred amid policy changes in both countries. Mexican authorities have intensified surveillance to prevent migrants from reaching the country’s northern border.
The experts consulted assure that this has only been possible thanks to the collaboration between both countries, which they consider essential for the presidential candidates.
Kamala Harris says that, if she reaches the White House, the border with Mexico would be closed to illegal immigration and that her Government would sanction. For his part, Trump has promised to carry out a mass deportation plan. The former president told TIME that his goal would be between 15 and 20 million undocumented people in the United States.
“The immigration issue is part of a very important agenda that comes from different parts of the world and is projected in the United States,” says Aparicio and adds that “it is part of the agenda of both candidates and the US needs Mexico to cooperate.” clearly with this interest.”
The economic axis is also crucial, since in 2026 the first review of the Mexico-United States-Canada Free Trade Agreement (T-MEC) stipulated in the “clause” will take place. “sunset”in the midst of certain disputes raised between the countries.
“In this presidential period, what is also at stake is the review of the T-MEC, which could have some complications depending on who comes to power, but which will undoubtedly have an economic impact on both sides of the border,” he says. Apparition.
In August 2023, the United States requested a panel to resolve the controversy with Mexico over agricultural biotechnology, specifically against genetically modified corn. The matter remains under investigation by the panel.
The resolution mechanism has been activated seven times in different sectors: the dairy sector, the automotive sector, the energy sector, the agricultural biotechnology sector and the production of solar panels, according to the Center for Public Policy Research.
Trump has said that he wants to renegotiate the trade agreement that he himself negotiated in 2018, ensuring that it can be improved.
“Upon taking office, I will formally notify Mexico and Canada of my intention to invoke the six-year renegotiation provision of the USMCA that I put in place,” Trump said last week during a speech at the Economic Club of Detroit.
Harris has also said she would use the USMCA review process. Harris was one of 10 US senators who voted against this treaty at the time.
The commercial relationship between Mexico and the United States is one of the most significant in the world. In the first seven months of 2024, Mexico positioned itself as the United States’ third trading partner only behind Canada and China, with an exchange that exceeded US$486 billion, according to the US Census Bureau.
The reforms that are being carried out in Mexico, such as the judicial reform that has already been approved, have generated uncertainty and nervousness in international markets. The analysts consulted assure that given this, Mexico could lose foreign investment.
Professor Mariana Aparicio explained that the nervousness comes from investors’ concerns about whether the rule of law and judicial guarantees will be respected. However, he assures that these situations will be resolved and that the business relationship will continue.
“Especially because there are many issues that do not depend completely on the Executive, but are institutionalized and that allow systematic progress to continue regardless of the change of government,” said Aparicio.
The future of the relationship between Mexico and the United States is on hold until November 5, when the winner of the elections is known. Both countries, with new leaders almost at the same time, will have to work together to define the future of their important trade partnership.
For Aparicio “the option of not cooperating is more costly than cooperating even when we have deep differences.”