ANDl Institute of Employment Sciences and Labor Relations (ICER) analyzes the labor market in relation to war conflicts and concludes in its report ‘Europe: Forecasts in a conflict scenario’ that the international tensions caused by the conflict in Ukraine and its possible generalization, aggravated by the crisis in the Middle East They are creating deep tensions in economic and social stability.
The objective of the independent international entity, of a scientific and technical nature, is the analysis and research of the labor market.
The report ‘Europe: Forecasts in a conflict scenario’, prepared in collaboration with Ceprede, Nebrija University and TBS Education Barcelonahighlights that the key to resilience to face this situation and mitigate this impact will be in rapid adaptation to new circumstances, as well as in the development of inclusive employment policies and the promotion of public-private collaboration through innovation , diversification and investment in emerging sectors.
The sector of construction has been seriously affected by the stoppage of projects and the increase in material costs due to interruptions in supply chains. In a prolonged scenario, many small and medium-sized construction companies are expected to face workforce reductions or even closures. However, the ICER report notes that companies in the sector are adopting strategies to adapt, such as the implementation of innovative technologies (modular construction and sustainable materials) and diversification in international markets to reduce local uncertainty.
The sector motoringhighly dependent on imported components, faces great challenges such as reduced production and possible line closures due to the drop in demand and the interruption of supplies, affecting both manufacturers and component companies. However, despite these difficulties, the sector is accelerating its transition towards electric and autonomous vehicles, reducing dependence on fossil fuels and creating new employment opportunities in clean technologies and innovation.
The sector tourist would be seriously affected by a drastic drop in the number of visitors, impacting hotels, restaurants, airlines and other related industries, with particular impact on SMEs in coastal areas. This drop would also affect sectors indirectly dependent on tourism, such as construction, agriculture and the cultural industry.
According to ICER, the sector’s recovery remains fragile and could be hit again by energy costs and international tensions, especially in coastal areas that depend on international tourism. The decline in demand for tourism services could significantly increase unemployment, aggravating social tensions in the regions most dependent on tourism.
In the case of the healththe economic conflict will impact access to medical services, overloading public hospitals due to lack of financing and increasing demand for private centers, with chronic patients being the most affected. For their part, pharmaceutical companies would face problems in the production and distribution of medicines, with an impact on research and development, slowing down medical innovation and impacting companies that depend on it for growth.
Job demand
However, ICER identifies certain areas that could see an increase in job demand. The energy transition is a key example, with increased investment in renewable energy, driven by the need to reduce dependence on imported oil and gas. This will create opportunities for engineers, specialized technicians and skilled workers in green sectors.
Cybersecurity faces increasing risks in a context of geopolitical instability, with an increase in cyberattacks that threaten critical infrastructures such as energy networks, hospitals and transportation systems.
This situation endangers both essential services and the security of the data. ICER warns that the lack of protection against these attacks could lead to a loss of confidence in the digital economy, affecting key sectors such as e-commerce and financial services.
Opportunities
However, these risks also present opportunities. The rise of cybersecurity will drive demand for specialized professionals, as technology and security companies will need to redouble their efforts to protect systems.
This represents a great opportunity for diversification of the labor market, but also points out the need to invest in training and professional retraining so that workers can access these new job opportunities.